Bold (and not-so-bold) Predictions for the 2023 NRL Season

Counting down the minutes until kickoff? Here's something to kill time between dinner and footy. It's okay if you disagree, I disagree with myself constantly. It's how I get out of working out.

The 2023 NRL season is just hours away. Once that first ball is kicked, how the season will play out becomes much clearer.

Right now, all we can do is guess, make predictions and rest on our laurels until we’re proven right or deny we ever said it when we’re wrong.

The pre-season is filled with hope. Everyone is training the house down. No player has ever been as confident as they are this year. The Youtube training videos are getting everyone pumped. Nothing is impossible. Before the season starts, it’s possible the Dragons win the Grand Final.

Unfortunately, the majority of those hopes go up in smoke almost as soon as the whistle blows.

For now, though, we can make predictions for how the season will play out, based on nothing but vibe, intuition and feel.

Here are a few.

Grand Final

Melbourne Storm V Penrith Panthers

If Ryan Papenhuyzen returns at somewhere near the middle of the season is playing at the level he has previously, the Storm will combine as easily with the grand final as (thick) gravy with a schnitty.

Their biggest issue last season was a lack of consistency and constant roster changes accounting for injury. Though Papenhuyzen is a huge out, they’re a contender without him. If this truly is Craig Bellamy’s final year as coach, they’ll be doing all they can to send him out on top.

As for the Panthers, I don’t think much explanation is needed. Api Koroisau and Viliame Kikau are significant losses, no doubt. However, I think the Panthers will take it in their stride. They might have to slightly change how they play, but the additions of Luke Garner and Zac Hosking, and Mitch Kenny taking over the main hooking duties, mean a three-peat could be coming.

Premiers

Penrith Panthers

With Stephen Crichton and Spenser Leniu leaving at the end of the year, after Kurt Capewell, Matt Burton, Kikau, and Koroisau, this could be their best chance to win for the foreseeable future.

As long as the team is built around Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary, they’re in good stead. Teams like this don’t come around very often though and striking while the iron is hot is crucial.

Last year the Panthers showed a hunger for glory that is rarely shown by a winning team. There is a reason teams don’t go back-to-back. I don’t see them losing that hunger this season and I wouldn’t bet on anyone beating them.

Dally M Award

Cameron Munster

If the Storm are going to be back to their best, it’s going to be off the back of Cam Munster.

At his best, as seen by every NSW Blues fan, Cameron Munster is the best player in the world. The Storm will need him to be that player every week.

If he is, and Melbourne succeed off the back of it, even he should rack up the points.

Most Impactful New Signing

Kieran Foran

There are a billion great signings to choose from. Some more obvious than others. I’m not sure which category Foran fits in, but I expect him to make a significant impact on the often disappointing Gold Coast Titans.

It seems that he can’t stay healthy for anyone other than Manly, but if he can, he should be exactly what doctor ordered for the young, inexperienced and inconsistent Titans. They need someone to lead the team around and provide good ball to their edge forwards and backs. Foran can do all that and more. Off the back of his inclusion and development of the rest of the team, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the top eight.

Biggest Surprise

Roosters miss the eight

Would I bet my life on it? God, no. 

Chances are that the Roosters are well situated in the top four, fighting for the Premiership. However, they struggled to adjust to changes in 2022 and now they have a brand new hooker to fit in.

With such strong competition and almost every squad worthy of a top eight spot on paper, it doesn’t take many losses to find yourself on the outside looking in. A slow start, struggles to connect or a couple of injuries could see the Roosters premiership hopes dashed.

Wooden Spoon: Newcastle Knights

This one makes me sad.

While The Dolphins or Dragons are an easy choice, I think the Knights could very easily find themselves sitting on the bottom of the ladder at season's end.

Obviously, if Kalyn Ponga and the Saifiti brothers all go down for the season in round 1, there’s not much hope. But even if healthy I have almost no faith in the Knights for 2023.

The Knights success relies on players doing things that they haven’t done before. Ponga needs to perform at five-eighth and play almost every week . Bradman Best needs to fulfil his potential. Lachlan Miller has to be good enough at fullback to warrant Ponga not being at his best position. The Knights forward pack needs to be at their best and then some. I don’t see it coming together, even if their squad is undoubtedly talented enough to do damage.

Top Eight

1. Melbourne Storm

Buoyed by the return of their Captain Christian Welch and some exciting new signings, the Storm look set to return to their best in 2023.

The biggest question mark around their season is the health of Ryan Papenhuyzen, but Jahrome Hughes, Harry Grant and Cameron Munster can make up for anything.

Hell, they came fifth last year in the season from hell.

2. North Queensland Cowboys

Off the back of a third-placed finish and a preliminary final, the Cowboys should move from strength to strength. With minimal changes to their team, more time together should mean they are even better in 2023.

3. Penrith Panthers

Winning Premierships is tiring.

Last year, there were multiple games where the Panthers had key players out but were able to continue their winning ways thanks to their immense depth. A smaller pool of talent should see the Panthers lose matches that they wouldn’t have the last two seasons, especially during the State of Origin period.

4. Parramatta Eels

Honestly, I could see the Eels appearing far lower in the standings, but I’m backing them. After getting a sniff of the premiership last year and frankly getting dominated by their rivals, the Eels should want to win now more than ever.

Though they’ve had some pretty significant losses over the off-season, the additions of not only Josh Hodgson, but also Jack Murchie and J’maine Hopgood, should make the Eels a top-four team again.

5. South Sydney Rabbitohs

They’re the Rabbitohs. Whether they succeed in the finals or not, it’s almost a safe bet that they will be there or thereabouts at the end of the season. You can expect 20+ tries from Alex Johnston too.

It’s a toss up, but I think it’s more likely they fall out of the top four than otherwise.

6. Cronulla Sharks

Everybody can’t make the top four. I don’t expect the Sharks to be much worse than they were last year, but I also don’t expect the teams above them to change and the Storm should improve.

Behind Nicho Hynes and Dale Finucane, with strike across the park and an improved bench, the Sharkies should have premiership hopes, but I don’t see them getting there.

7. Sydney Roosters

Yes, I know I predicted the Roosters to miss the eight, but that’s a different, unrelated section. However, for the same reasons that I could imagine them missing the eight, I don’t think the Roosters will be the world-beaters that seemingly everyone thinks they will be.

Is Brandon Smith an eighty-minute hooker? Who will replace him if not? No Connor Watson. Will the halves continue their end-of-2022 form or revert to how they started last year?

There are a million different questions that the Roosters have revolving around them. Teams with none are more reliable. Sure, I could see them dominating and winning the comp - their team is stacked. But, I don’t think it will happen in 2023.

8. Manly Sea Eagles

There are a few teams I wanted to put here, and none of them are the Sea Eagles. The Gold Coast Titans, Wests Tigers, New Zealand Warriors and Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs are all teams that have improved that I would love to see succeed.

Alas, with the return of Tom Trbojevic infused with the knowledge of Bill Knowles, I think it’s unlikely they miss the finals. Though… the pride jersey saga and everything that came from it is still there. Say what they want, I believe it rubbed the players that did play, the wrong way. That isn’t easy to move on from, but winning cures all. With Tom, it’s safe to predict more winning.

Thanks for reading!

I’ll be writing some stuff throughout the NRL season. If you like having something to read during your morning commute or while sitting on the toilet, subscribe to receive each post directly to your email.

If you like to live on the wild side, don’t subscribe. If it’s meant to be, it will be.

Cya next time - MD