Dream to Dream: How Samoa Can Beat Australia and Win the Rugby League World Cup

Spoilers: They're gonna need some luck... but that's not exactly rare in sport.

History has been made.

Samoa has bested Tonga and then England to reach their first ever Rugby League World Cup Final.

Now they face the almost insurmountable task of beating Australia to lift the trophy.

While the Kangaroos have been clunky throughout the tournament and still lack the fluidity that will only come with games played, they are the best team in the world.

The New Zealand Kiwis were the only team with a legitimate shot.

They came close. Close, but no cigar.

That’s not to say that Samoa has no chance.

They have a better chance than the Cleveland Cavaliers did to make history and come back from 3-1 down to the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals.

They certainly have more of a shot than Steven Bradbury had to win Gold in the 1000m speed skate in the 2002 Winter Olympics.

Samoa winning would be less of a shock than Andy Ruiz knocking out Anthony Joshua to become the first Mexican Heavyweight Champion.

I mean, Japan beat South Africa in the 2015 Rugby World Cup coming in at 80/1 to win and Buster Douglas achieved the (seemingly) impossible by knocking out Mike Tyson.

It’s sport. Shit happens that shouldn’t happen all the time.

Just through that fact alone, Samoa has a shot at winning. They won’t be able to just rely on that, though. And they are too good of a side to do so.

A Fast Start

Against England, Joseph Sua’ali’i started the match by kicking the ball out on the full from the kick-off. At the end of their first set, Anthony Milford followed suit.

If they start like that against the Kangaroos, the game will be over.

The Kangaroos are better and the best way to defeat a superior opponent is to strike first.

Matt Parish will do well to do his best John Kreese impression before kick-off.

The best thing Samoa can do is find a way to score early points. If they can’t do that, just sticking with Australia for fifteen minutes will do. 

Stick with them for as long as possible, and rely on the individual brilliance of Paulo, Jarome Luai, Sua’ali’i and, of course, Tim Lafai to earn points.

To stay in the wrestle with the Kangaroos, they’ll need to succeed in the following point.

Dominate the Middle

It’s not some glorious piece of intellect to say that winning the forwards battle, or the metres battle since the backs are as crucial as the props, is important to a rugby league victory.

Nevertheless, this is the one area that Samoa can truly win the battle… even if it isn’t likely.

The Kangaroos forwards are better than England’s. In every facet, they’re better. Still, Samoa was completely dominant in both attack and defence against the Poms.

Led by Junior Paulo, who was amazing, Samoa's strong defence and hard running were how they won.

Especially early in the match, Samoa will have to win the middle of the field, through the likes of Paulo, Brian To’o, Sua’ali’i and the rest of the forwards.

Recommendation: Run wherever Jake Trbojevic is not.

Even if Samoa run rampant through the middle, it will all be worth nil if they fail in the next VIP (very important point).

Kicking, Kicking and More Kicking.

Almost the entire Samoan team could run for over 100m. It wouldn’t be enough if the halves don’t have their kicking boots on.

It’s no secret that both Jarome Luai and Anthony Milford will have to have the games of their lives if Samoa is any hope.

The most important feature of their game that has to be on, though, is their kicking.

There can be no shanks. No mistakes. No kicks that land on the Kangaroos 30m line rather than the 10m line. No kicks that give Teddy space to open up the field for Valentine Holmes or Josh Addo-Carr to make a break down the sideline.

Their kicking game will have to be accurate and heavily chased.

This is probably their weakest asset. That can’t be the case on Sunday morning or the Kangaroos will eventually win the arm wrestle, whether it’s in the 10th, 50th or 79th minute.

Throw the ball with Reckless Abandon

I’d like to say that doesn’t mean to just throw the ball randomly… but it does.

With a set line, Samoa has almost no chance of beating the Kangaroos defence. The Aussie defence is too good and the Samoan attack isn’t good enough. 

At least, their structured attack isn’t.

However, as we saw through the brilliance of Paulo and Luai last week, they thrive in broken play. 

Samoa is going to have to constantly force off-loads, even when they aren’t on, to have a chance. Of course, this could lead to a bevy of mistakes and turnovers and, inevitably a Kangaroos thrashing.

That’s the risk you run to chase glory.

Hope the Kangaroos Take it Easy

This isn’t to disrespect the Samoan side, but this is probably the most likely and most important point.

The New Zealand side that Australia beat last week was by far the biggest threat to the Kangaroos' RLWC victory.

Everybody knows that Samoa has little-to-no chance of winning. Most importantly, the Kangaroos know it.

Of course, they’ll try to treat it like they were facing New Zealand, but they aren’t.

It only takes you being a few percentage points from your best to give the opposition a sniff.

Unfortunately, it’s the Rugby League World Cup Final. I can’t imagine Australia taking it easy.

If Australia plays anywhere close to their potential, they won’t lose.

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No matter what happens on Sunday, it doesn’t take away from the history-making and hopefully trend-setting step Samoa has made.

Hopefully in 2025, Samoa, Tonga, PNG and Fiji will be even stronger and more competitive.

Whether the game is over in the first three minutes, by halftime or if it goes down to the wire, it will be a special game.

Plus, we get to see the Siva Tau one more time. God, it’s good.

Cya Sunday at 3am.

All that being said, Kangaroos 30+.

I’ll see you again on Sunday morning for my final RLWC Daily Wrap.

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