State of Origin Game Two: Exploring Recent History and Its Implications for Brad Fittler's NSW Blues

It's not rocket science to say that Suncorp Stadium and NSW Blues victories rarely mix, but there is hope to be found in the past.

Losing Game One of a series is never a great idea, but there are some scenarios that are worse than others. Losing Game One at the opposition's home stadium, knowing you'll return to yours for Game Two? Doesn’t set a great precedent, but you’ve still got a home game to bounce back, then see what happens.

Possibly the worst scenario is defeat at a neutral location, with Game Two taking place at Suncorp Stadium.

I mean, the Blues record at Suncorp is bad enough. Add the extra pressure off a must-win and a Queensland Maroons side that smells blood in the water, and you’ve got a bad environment for lives south of the border.

By 'bad enough', I mean of the twenty-six games played at Suncorp Stadium since 2003, the NSW Blues have won just seven. A win percentage of 27%.

Not great.

But hey, one from four isn’t the trend.

So what is? Let's get into what history has to say about the NSW Blues hopes next Wednesday and the odds they have to overcome to extend the series to a Game Three decider.

Good news or bad news first, Blues fans?

The Bad News

Unsurprisingly, NSW Blues and Suncorp mix like Mentos and Coke and history doesn't shine much brighter when you cut it down to Game Two’s at Suncorp after losing Game One. In fact... if you put much stock into historic trends, the Blues are almost no hope next Wednesday night.

Bad news might’ve been a bad idea. Blues fans, just scroll down to the next section.

Since 2003, there have been seven Game Two’s played at Suncorp Stadium. The Maroons have won six of them. and, of those six, the Maroons have won all but one of those series.

But hey, one out of seven ain't so bad, right?

Well, under normal circumstances… it’s still pretty dire. Depending on how you look at it, though, the Blues' singular Game Two victory at Suncorp could be more or less respected in terms of victories at Suncorp.

This is, of course, because that one victory came in 2021 when all three matches were played across Queensland in consecutive weeks.

Whether you see that series win as more or less deserving than others, either way, they’re one from seven. The negatives don’t end there.

Of the last twenty series, the Blues have lost Game One twelve times. They usually bounce back for Game Two, right?

... right?

While they might bounce back for Game Two, the Blues series record after losing Game One since 2003 is 3-9. A series win rate of 25%.

Alright. Take a deep breath. The worst of it is over. Queenslanders, take your hands out of your pants for Wally Lewis’ sake.

It’s not all doom and gloom for New South Wales.

The Good News

While it might not be the most auspicious prospect in the world, there are a few little nuggets of recent history that say the Blues have a good chance on June 21st.

Well good is pushing it but Latrell’s back, so that’s something.

Now, while their series record after going down one-nil isn’t great, with a Game Three in Sydney, all that matters right now is winning Game Two. When it comes to bouncing back from a loss and winning Game Two, as Obi-Wan Kenobi once said;

We’ll ignore the fact that Obi-Wan is then swiftly cast aside by Count Dooku.

Since 2003, the Blues have lost Game One twelve times. They have responded with a Game Two victory eight times; a win percentage of 66%.

Of course, only two of those Game Two’s took place at Suncorp, and we lost both.

It doesn't stop there, though.

I might have my problems with Fittler, but he seems to know his stuff when it comes to getting his team up for Game Two.

Since Fittler took over from Laurie Daley in 2018, the NSW Blues have not lost a Game Two.

Even more impressive, and more suitable to NSW fans' current hopes, the Blues were down 0-1 heading into three of those Game Twos, in 2019, 2020, and 2022.

Five series. Five Game Two wins. Three of which came off losses. Not bad.

While only 2021's Game Two was held at Suncorp, which the Blues won, only two of the five games were held in Sydney, with 2022 and 2019 both taking place in Perth.

Final Word

Are the Blues the favourite? No. Are the Maroons going to defend Suncorp with everything they have and come out victorious? It's likelier than not. Does most of recent history show that Queensland doesn't lose at Suncorp? It sure does.

There is positive history there for fans to latch onto, though.

What wins out? Queensland’s historic dominance at their Rugby League Mecca? Or Brad Fittler and the NSW Blues knack for recovering from a first-game defeat.

Whichever the case, it won’t be numbers, history and trends that run out on the field on Wednesday night.

It’s fun to look at and gives fans something to spout to mates at the pub, but history means nothing when these two teams come together. They both know what’s at stake. They both know what it’s going to take to overcome their opposition.

We'll see whose will wins out next week.

Game Two awaits, fans!

Suncorp Stadium hasn't been kind to the Blues, but history tells us they've bounced back before. With stakes high, both teams are primed for an intense showdown.

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Let the rivalry ignite!