The NRL Ladder After Round Two and What it Means for the End of the Season

We know early games don't mean much... there's plenty of time left in the season to make up for any mistakes. But, how much do early losses matter?

Overreacting to things that will almost certainly turn out to be insignificant is one of the greatest aspects of enjoying sport.

Your team won their first two games? Time to think about buying Grand Final tickets.

Rookie prop had a good first game? He’s the next Shane Webcke.

That team you hate because they beat your team in the final 34 years ago was convincingly beaten once? Well, they’re going to come last and you’re lovin’ it.

Most of the time, these overreactions tend to be exactly that - wild and stupid reactions to things that don’t matter in the grand scheme of the season.

But, history loves to repeat itself. That’s why fans love to call back to the time in 1966 when their team lost their first five games and then won the entire shebang.

With two rounds of the 2023 season come and gone, there’s plenty to overreact to. Both good, and bad.

So let’s take a look at what, if anything, the first two rounds mean to how the season will end up.

What does history tell us?

Since 2013 (yep, that’s 10 years ago), no more than four teams who were sitting in the top eight after round two have found themselves in the bottom eight at season’s end.

In 2013, the Gold Coast Titans, Parramatta Eels, Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos all fell out of the top eight after being there after round two. Two years later in 2015, the Newcastle Knights and Wests Tigers joined the Panthers and Eels as the four teams to fall away.

In five of the last ten seasons, two top eight teams post-round-two fell to the bottom eight after the final round, and three teams fell away three times.

Unfortunately, there’s not really any pattern to fall back on. But, what this does tell us is that at the very least, half the top eight is solidified.

Looking at how the ladder sits at the moment, the teams all but guaranteed to fall out are the New Zealand Warriors and Gold Coast Titans.

The Dolphins have started 2-0 and, facing the Knights, could very easily be 3-0. All you need is to win 50% of your games. As for the Dragons, well I have no faith in them but they won their first game and almost made the eight last year despite being horrible, so who knows?

Let’s say it plays out like that. That would leave only six spots for the Penrith Panthers, South Sydney Rabbitohs, Sydney Roosters, Melbourne Storm, Cronulla Sharks, North Queensland Cowboys, Brisbane Broncos, Manly Sea-Eagles and Parramatta Eels.

All top-four worthy rosters, it would be disastrous for any three of them to miss the finals. As the ladder currently sits after round two, three of them find themselves well outside the eight.

What it means for the Tortoises of the NRL

While it’s a useful moral for children, ‘slow and steady wins the race’ isn’t true in the NRL. Strong starts can make or break the season. That’s why the competition’s best franchise makes a point to never lose round one. Unfortunately for the Storm, Eels and Cowboys, they’ve come out of the gates like Corgis rather than Greyhounds.

In the last five years, six teams seated 12th and below after round two have gone on to make the eight. So there’s hope.

But, if you look at teams who were placed 14th and below after round 2, there is only one team that has gone on to make the eight — the 2021 Manly Sea Eagles.

Unfortunately, the Bulldogs, Raiders, Eels and Tigers don’t have Tom Trbojevic joining them anytime soon.

In only one of the last five years has there been more than two teams to come back from 12th and below; the Rabbitohs and Raiders of 2022. If history suggests, only one of the Cowboys, Storm and Eels will play finals footy.

Feel free to guess which one it will be.

It’s nonsense, I know… but…

Obviously, this is all make-believe. Unlike most journalists and blokes on the tele, I have no problem saying I don’t have a clue who’s going to finish where. At a minimum, there are around 11 teams with a team worthy of the top eight — they aren’t all going to make it.

Underdogs rising to the challenge is one of the most exciting aspects of sport. The Dolphins have us covered there. Almost as enjoyable, is a team that capitulates for whatever reasons and dramatically underperforms and the NRL has more than a few challengers for that one.

One thing I do know, I’ll enjoy learning more along the way

Thanks for reading!

I’ll be writing some stuff throughout the NRL season. If you like having something to read during your morning commute or while sitting on the toilet, subscribe to receive each post directly to your email.

If you like to live on the wild side, don’t subscribe. If it’s meant to be, it will be.

Cya next time - MD