Tonga V Samoa: Keys To Victory
A game that never fails to excite, the Quarter-Final between Tonga and Samoa could be the match of the tournament. So what areas can these two fairly evenly matched sides look to earn victory?
Other than Australia and New Zealand meeting in the quarter-finals, I’m not sure there is a Rugby League matchup more delectable at this stage of the tournament than Tonga VS Samoa.
🇹🇴 Sipi Tau 🇹🇴 V 🇼🇸 Siva Tau 🇼🇸.
Red against Blue.
Jason Taumalolo and Addin Fonua-Blake up against Junior Paulo, Josh Papali’i.
Two truly elite backlines, filled with youngsters and veterans.
With both teams really starting to hit their straps as Samoa has bounced back from England's thrashing and Tonga looked a completely different team with Taumalolo at the helm, it really doesn’t get much better.
Rugby League and sport generally is hard to chop down to wordy specifics. One player having the game of their life can completely change a match.
Nonetheless, with the game kicking off in just over 11 hours at 1:30AM, let’s take a look at where and how each team should be looking to win the match.
Metres from the back
Samoa’s number one weapon is the metres their back three make. There is no good kicking target. Taylan may ran 135 metres last week against the Cook Islands and Joseph Su’ali’i is averaging a whopping 210 in his three matches so far.
In his three RLWC matches, Brian To’o is averaging a *fucking ridiculous* 258m per game.
Tonga’s Daniel Tupou is producing a very strong 195m a game, while Katoa offers only 105m. While Will Hopoate will add experience and skill out the back, he’s not known as a metre eater.
With Tonga as the favourites, Samoa will need to take full advantage of its superior back three to account for Tonga winning the next crucial area of the game.
*swearing is allowed when it comes to Brian To’o’s stats.
Which forward pack comes out on top?
There is no questioning the fact that Tonga has the superior forward pack. Even without Jason Taumalolo and the difference he made to the side last week, their pack would be stronger than Samoa’s.
Junior Paulo and Josh Papali’i are as good as anyone. However, while Oregon Kaufusi, Royce Hunt or Marty Taupau might steal Ben Murdoch-Masila’s bench spot, no other Samoan forward would make the Tongan side.
If Tonga is to win, they have to dominate the middle and give time for Tuimoala Lolohea to work his craft and create opportunities.
The key for Samoa is not to let the edges run wild. Keaon Koloamatangi has been a standout for Tonga in the World Cup so far and Felise Kaufusi has looked like his 25-year-old self.
If Samoa is to be any chance, they will have to work harder and perform better in defence than they have so far. Once Tonga earns a few quick play-the-balls and their big boys get momentum, it’s over.
Which inconsistent halves will own the night?
This is really what the two areas above are laying the platform for. Which set of halves is going to step up and get the job done?
More or less, these teams are evenly matched, all the way up to their halves that come and go like the wind. In one game they’re an unstoppable tornado. The next, you don’t even know they’re playing.
Lolohea has proven that he can stand up in the big matches. Tonga’s groundbreaking victory against Australia was largely off the back of him playing like he was covered in spiders — it looked like no one wanted to touch him. His young partner, Isaiya Katoa, is far less proven.
As for Samoa, Anthony Milford is more consistent these days, just not positively.
Luai, however, can look like the best five-eighth in the game at times, and then not do anything for long stretches.
Luai will have to have his elite short-kicking game going to build pressure, or Tonga will just roll over them eventually.
If their teams are to win, a heavy weight is on the backs of Luai and Lolohea, but they will need success in the other discussed areas to do their job.
Whatever the case, it should be an absolute cracker.
Though, I said that about England v PNG and haven’t mentally recovered from the disappointment yet.
Alright, I’m done. I’ll see tomorrow morning for another edition of the RLWC Daily Wrap. Who’ve you got winning?
Still here? Want to support but hate the thought of receiving more emails? Buy me a coffee instead!
See what I’m trying to build and want to get in at the ground-level? Subscribe! It’s completely free, allows you to receive every new post straight into your inbox and lets me know I’m not writing into the abyss.